2015-10-06 Joaquin & Weather

We departed our homeport of Galesville, MD on Labor Day and have faced days of challenging weather the whole trip and most recently a near miss by Hurricane Joaquin. We have been moored to a floating dock Some may have seen the below on Facebook.

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Published by Anthony W Baker · September 30 at 1:12pm · Edited ·

Magnolia is going to ride out the Joaquin “event” in Swansboro NC. We are moored at a municipal concrete floating dock with a double width slip. Sails secured, lines ready and enclosure down tomorrow as forecast warrants. Family and land refuge walking distance away. Current metric is 8 models pass over or south of Cape Hatteras. This is our metric for things looking better or looking worse! Vessel & Crew are well.

S/V Magnolia's photo.

Published by Anthony W Baker · September 30 at 8:00pm ·

Sadly our storm model metric took a bad hit this afternoon. Over 20 models indicate Joaquin will pass south and west of Cape Hatteras. That is certainly a negative for us but we are preparing the best we can and will head for safety at the appropriate time…promise. Still a ways off, so we will see.

S/V Magnolia's photo.

Published by Anthony W Baker · October 1 at 9:02am ·

09:00 Well there is good news and very little news. Because of the complexity of this storm we still do not know where or IF Joaquin will come ashore. That is the little news. The good news is about half of the ensemble models show him heading offshore. That pulls the consensus estimate off shore which is good news. Preparations continue with the enclosure curtains removed last evening. Vessel and crew well.

S/V Magnolia's photo.

S/V Magnolia's photo.

Published by Anthony W Baker · October 1 at 5:06pm ·

17:00 The news continues in a favorable direction. Granted we are one model run from the story changing but at least at this moment things are looking a bit more favorable. Granted its a little subjective looking at the wider model population but there is no arguing the NOAAs forecast has moved east…keep your fingers crossed this trend continues!

S/V Magnolia's photo.

S/V Magnolia's photo.

Published by Anthony W Baker · October 2 at 9:32am ·

09:30 – Friday We have a big sense of relief on Magnolia this morning that it appears most of our preparations will not be required as our Jaoquin event continues to move off shore. As our weather guy Chris Parker said, “Could Joaquin still hit US E Coast? It would take a major surprise to bring Joaquin to the US E Coast.” Music to our ears! Thanks for all the good thoughts and keep your fingers crossed!

S/V Magnolia's photo.

S/V Magnolia's photo.

HOPEFULLY we will get a break enough in the weather to start moving again tomorrow, wish us luck! Vessel and Crew are well.

3 thoughts on “2015-10-06 Joaquin & Weather

  1. A2, Glad the storm veered to the east and you are off the hook, so to speak. Looking at the spaghetti chart, it’s hard to imagine how some of the forecasters came up with the western track predictions, other than the “Let’s throw a dart” method…

  2. You’re going to see a lot of debris. The South Carolina governor just called the event the worst rains they’ve received in 1,000 years. The first new hazard marker to come in was a house that had slid off the shore and was blocking most of the ICW (it has been dragged back to the bank – TowHouse US?).

    There’s going to be unusual things floating by with a lot under the water that you can’t see. I’m expecting a lot of new shoaling reports coming in too. You guys are early and ahead of the pack. Report what you find but don’t take chances – turn back if you’re not sure and figure out another way around or other people to help. Write if you need resources to help.

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